Early Arizona Voter Trends Show Republican, Democrat Turnout Narrowing

By Ariana Bustos
Published: Wednesday, October 31, 2018 - 4:28pm
Updated: Thursday, November 1, 2018 - 8:33am
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Wednesday was the recommended deadline to submit a mail-in ballot for the 2018 Arizona general election. And that means new numbers are coming in for early-voting trends. 

So far, 1.2 million early ballots have been submitted in Arizona, and 2.2 million are expected in total. There were 135,000 ballots in the most recent wave — and those voters trended younger, Democratic and slightly more female.

Garrett Archer, senior analyst with the Secretary of State’s Office, said the gap between Republicans and Democrats is narrowing.

“Republicans returned their early ballots early and we were seeing a 14-point split between the Democrats and Republicans, and since that time the Democrats have successfully narrowed that to nine points," Archer said. "So they have shaved five points off the Republicans’ advantage in the whole span of the early-ballot period." 

Archer said the change surprised him, but if these numbers hold, the gap could get even smaller. 

“The Democrats have done a better job at beating my guess by narrowing the split further on a larger drop. I mean, at this point, the floor is unknown. I would say that there is a distinct possibility, if this holds, we could be looking at a floor in the fives or six," Archer said. 

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